Friday, November 29, 2024

Unsustainable stock pricing

 Unsustainable stock price zones occur when stock prices rise significantly above their intrinsic value, often due to speculative bubbles. These bubbles are fueled by factors such as excessive liquidity, investor psychology, and market sentiment, leading to rapid price increases that are not supported by fundamentals[2][3]. When the bubble bursts, it can result in sharp declines in stock prices, causing economic disruptions and recessions[1][2]. Historical examples include the 1920s stock market bubble and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s[2][3]. Recognizing these unsustainable zones is crucial for investors to avoid significant financial losses.


Sources

[1] The worst stock market crashes of all time - IG https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/the-worst-stock-market-crashes-of-all-time-181031

[2] How Do Asset Bubbles Cause Recessions? - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082515/how-do-asset-bubbles-cause-recessions.asp

[3] 5 Stages of a Bubble - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp

[4] 15 Factors that Affect Stock Market Prices - Strike.money https://www.strike.money/stock-market/price-factors

[5] Stock Market Crash: Causes, History, and How to Protect Your ... https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-history

[6] Biggest Stock Market Crashes In US History - Bankrate https://www.bankrate.com/investing/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-us-history/

[7] [PDF] Stock Market Concentration - Morgan Stanley https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_stockmarketconcentration.pdf

[8] Understanding stock market volatility and how it could help you https://www.fidelity.com.sg/beginners/your-guide-to-stock-investing/understanding-stock-market-volatility

Monday, November 25, 2024

Bitcoin/Crypto to payoff National Debt (BTC) - 35 Trillion $ Only

Dollar gaining strength over other currencies by strategically building Bitcoin and Energy reserves can enbale USA to pay off the National Whopping debt of 35 Trillion $.

This would take a balancing act of Crypto mining and Energy reserves. Deploying nuclear power towards systematic mining along with building the reserves may just DO it.

Interested, read more....

While the idea of using cryptocurrency to address the U.S. national debt has gained attention, particularly from figures like Donald Trump and Senator Cynthia Lummis, the feasibility of systematically mining and trading crypto coins to pay off the debt faces several challenges:

Scale and Practicality

The U.S. national debt currently stands at approximately $35 trillion, which far exceeds the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined[1]. Even if the U.S. were to acquire a significant portion of the crypto market, it would likely be insufficient to make a substantial dent in the debt.

Mining Limitations

Bitcoin, the most prominent cryptocurrency, has a capped supply of 21 million coins, of which about 90% has already been mined[1]. This leaves limited potential for new Bitcoin production through mining. Additionally, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency mining makes it difficult for a single entity, even a government, to control a significant portion of the mining process.

Proposed Strategies

Instead of mining, some politicians and industry figures have proposed alternative approaches:

1. Strategic Reserve: Senator Lummis has introduced a bill to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, aiming to acquire 5% of the total Bitcoin supply over time[3].

2. Debt Reduction Plan: Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy suggests that buying one million Bitcoins over five years could potentially reduce the national debt by $16 trillion, or 45% of the total[2].

3. Crypto Checks: Trump has suggested "issuing small crypto checks" as part of a strategy to repay the national debt[3].

 Economic Implications

Proponents argue that a Bitcoin reserve could:

- Stabilize the dollar and increase national wealth

- Serve as a hedge against inflation

- Preserve the country's financial dominance

However, critics point out the volatility of cryptocurrencies and the potential risks of relying on speculative assets for national debt management.

Political Considerations

The idea of using cryptocurrencies to address the national debt has gained some traction among certain political figures, but it remains a controversial and untested approach. It would require significant legislative support and a shift in monetary policy to implement such strategies.

In conclusion, while systematically mining and trading crypto coins is unlikely to be a viable solution for paying off the U.S. national debt, the broader concept of incorporating cryptocurrencies into national financial strategies is gaining attention. However, any such plans would face substantial practical, economic, and political hurdles before implementation.


Citations:

[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-promises-crypto-election-usa

[2] https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2024/11/15/michael-saylor-explains-how-a-bitcoin-reserve-could-reduce-u-s-debt-by-16-trillion/

[3] https://www.cointribune.com/en/donald-trump-suggests-using-bitcoin-to-repay-the-us-debt/

AAPL: Modestly overvalued

 


Thursday, November 21, 2024

Beware of the Bitcoin Hoarders

Several companies are hoarding Bitcoin as a strategy to potentially boost their stock prices. 

Here's a list of notable companies engaging in this practice:


1. MicroStrategy (MSTR): Holds approximately 279,420 bitcoins as of November 10, 2024.


2. Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): Holds 10,427 BTC


3. Riot Platforms (RIOT): Holds 10,427 BTC.


4. CleanSpark (CLSK): Exact holdings not specified, but actively involved in Bitcoin mining.


5. Galaxy Digital: Holds 4,000 BTC.


6. Exodus (EXOD): Purchased 1,787 bitcoins in December 2023


7. NEXON: Holds 1,717 BTC.


8. Bit Digital (BTBT): Holds 731 BTC.


9. BIGG Digital Assets Inc: Holds 575 BTC.


10. Metaplanet: Recently doubled its BTC holdings to 855.5 bitcoins.


These companies have seen significant stock price increases correlating with their Bitcoin holdings. For example, MicroStrategy's stock price has increased by more than 26 times since August 2020 when it began its Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Similarly, Exodus has seen its stock price rise by 687% since its Bitcoin purchase.


https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2147875