Chinese New Year: Year of the Horse and the Stock Market: Horse years have been among the ..

 

There’s no scientifically proven link between the Chinese zodiac (including the Year of the Horse) and stock market performance — markets are driven by economic data, corporate earnings, interest rates, geopolitics, and investor behavior, not astrology. That said, people do sometimes look at historical patterns and cultural narratives when thinking about market psychology. Here’s a clear breakdown:

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📊 Historical “Zodiac-Year” Market Patterns

Some financial writers and popular articles have looked back at stock performance during past Chinese zodiac years — but these are correlations, not causation.

• According to a CNBC analysis, historically Horse years have been among the weaker performers for major U.S. indexes (S&P 500 and Dow) going back to 1928. In that dataset, Horse years had relatively low average returns compared to other zodiac years.

• A study of the Taiwan stock market shows that in the last ~50 years, Horse years tended to have the lowest average return among the 12 zodiac cycles.

These patterns are retrospective and not predictive — there’s no economic mechanism linking the zodiac to market returns.

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🐎 What the Year of the Fire Horse Symbolizes (Culturally)

In Chinese astrology, the Horse sign (especially as a Fire Horse, as in 2026) carries symbolic traits that some investors like to reflect on metaphorically:

• Energy and movement — a faster pace of life and action-oriented decisions.

• Independence and initiative — readiness to take bold steps or start new ventures.

• Intense change or volatility — some astrological interpretations suggest higher “energy,” which some people loosely liken to market swings (not actual financial volatility).

These are symbolic ideas, not economic indicators.

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📉 Why Astrology Isn’t a Market Predictor

Here’s why you shouldn’t rely on zodiac symbolism for investing decisions:

1. Markets follow economic fundamentals

Stock prices reflect things like:

• Corporate profits

• Interest rates

• Monetary and fiscal policy

• Geopolitical events

• Consumer and business confidence

Astrology doesn’t influence these drivers.

2. Historical zodiac correlations are inconsistent

Patterns change over time because markets evolve — different events happen in different years. What happened in one Horse year may not repeat decades later.

3. Risk management still matters

Even if a year feels energetic or bold in cultural lore, rational investing still requires diversification, long-term planning, and data-driven analysis.

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🧠 A Practical Takeaway

• Do not treat the Chinese zodiac as a financial forecast or trading signal.

SPY’s Dystopian Reckoning: AI Apocalypse Reshapes America’s Market

SPY’s Dystopian Reckoning: AI Apocalypse Reshapes America’s Market

In the shadow of 2026’s AI-fueled cataclysm, the U.S. economy lies in ruins. Unfettered AI buildout obliterated 40% of jobs overnight—white-collar coders, drivers, analysts—all redundant. Legacy firms vaporized, supply chains snapped, and Uncle Sam’s $50 trillion debt debt-trap rendered bailouts impossible. The SPY index, once a bull-market beacon, now mirrors two nightmare futures: a hyper-AI oligarchy or a regulator-enforced traditional wasteland.

Path One: AI Overlords Rule

Picture a market where silicon barons feast on humanity’s scraps. Regulators, paralyzed by tech lobbying and export dependency, let AI titans consolidate. The S&P 500 shrinks to 200 survivors, 75% AI-choked.

New SPY Top 10 (AI Dominion Scenario)

 

Volatility reigns: 20% daily swings as AI bubbles inflate, then pop. SPY halves to $300/share before rebounding on global AI hegemony, mocking the starving masses below.

Path Two: Luddite Reversion

Or imagine the backlash: The SEC unleashes antitrust nukes, nationalizes hyperscalers, bans neural nets “for public safety.” Tech giants shatter; jobs return to factories and farms. SPY reverts to a 1970s dinosaur—stable, soul-crushing, diversified drudgery.

New SPY Top 10 (Traditional Zombie Scenario)

Sectors flip: industrials 30%, staples 25%, no tech above 5%. Returns limp at 3%, a “zombie index” for a barter-economy underclass.

The Fork Ahead

By 2027, SPY’s fate hinges on D.C.’s gamble—embrace AI feudalism or smash it for analog revival. Either way, the index that defined prosperity now epitomizes peril: a market for machines or a mausoleum for men. Investors, pick your poison

Top 10 companies with best margins : $MSFT $AAPL $GOOGL $BRK.B $V $MA $JPM $NVDA $META $XOM

 Top Fortune 500 companies known for high-margin, high-volume business models prioritize scalable, asset-light operations like software, payments, cloud services, or branded consumer goods, where gross margins often exceed 60-80% and net margins stay above 15-20% on massive revenue scales

These exemplars derive most revenue from high-margin core activities (e.g., licensing, subscriptions, transaction fees) rather than low-margin commodities.

$MSFT $AAPL $GOOGL $BRK.B $V $MA $JPM $NVDA $META $XOM

 

Eliminating America's $38 Trillion Debt: A Realistic 5-Step Blueprint

The United States faces a staggering national debt exceeding $38 trillion, a burden growing faster than the economy in recent projections. With President Donald Trump, reelected in 2024 and now steering policy in 2026, fresh strategies emphasize growth and efficiency over austerity alone. This article outlines a practical 5-step approach, blending economic principles with actionable reforms to shrink debt-to-GDP ratios sustainably.[youtube]​[fortune]​

Step 1: Ignite Explosive Economic Growth

Boost GDP growth above 3% annually through deregulation, energy dominance, and pro-business tax cuts. Trump's World Economic Forum speech highlighted tariffs and supply-side policies to outpace debt accumulation, potentially halving the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2034.[callan]​[youtube]​

This step leverages America's innovative edge—think AI, quantum tech, and manufacturing resurgence—to generate trillions in organic revenue without tax hikes.

Step 2: Slash Waste and Fraud Ruthlessly

Eliminate inefficiencies in government spending, targeting $500 billion+ yearly in fraud across entitlements and contracts. Prioritize audits of programs like Medicare and defense procurement, echoing Ray Dalio's call for deficits under 3% of GDP via spending discipline.investopedia+1

Real-world example: Trump's prior term recovered billions from improper payments; scaling this delivers quick wins.

Step 3: Unlock Non-Tax Revenue Streams

Impose smart tariffs on adversaries while creating a U.S. sovereign wealth fund from oil royalties, spectrum auctions, and asset sales. This "Trump secret plan" variant avoids broad taxes, channeling surpluses directly to debt paydown.[youtube]​

Combined with trade rebalancing, it could yield $200-300 billion annually, funding growth without squeezing households.

Step 4: Overhaul Entitlements for Longevity

Reform Social Security and Medicare—over 50% of the budget—via means-testing, raising eligibility ages, and premium adjustments. Bipartisan models from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget show this stabilizing mandatory spending by 2035.fortune+1

Phased implementation protects current retirees while ensuring solvency for future generations.

Step 5: Enforce Monetary Guardrails

Coordinate with the Federal Reserve for stable 2% inflation and controlled rates, avoiding debt monetization traps. This caps interest costs, now nearing $1 trillion yearly, and sets debt-to-GDP on a downward path below 100% by 2036.fortune+1

Why This Works Now

In January 2026, with recession risks looming and voter debt concerns peaking, this growth-first blueprint aligns incentives across parties. It sidesteps painful defaults or inflation spikes, prioritizing prosperity. Implementation demands political will, but early Trump signals suggest momentum.[pgpf]​[youtube]​

Huge Upswing in $GOOG and $GOOGL expected: Target 380$

1) Large Gemini AI uptake and revenue across business lines

2) Business 2 business tie ups and contracts

3) Quantum AI God moment. 

Beat down stocks (slightly) but Excellent A+ upside potential

 

$VLO – Valero Energy Corporation: Largest independent U.S. refiner; slightly beaten down from short-term refining margin compression and oil price swings, but A+ long-term upside via strong cash generation, industry-leading dividend, and potential benefit from sustained global energy demand.

$EL – The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.: Premium beauty giant; pressured by softer luxury spending, Asia-Pacific slowdown, and inventory adjustments, yet excellent recovery potential from brand strength, e-commerce growth, and emerging-market consumer rebound.

$RHHBY – Roche Holding AG (ADR): Global pharma & diagnostics leader; undervalued amid patent expirations and competitive pressures, but outstanding long-term upside from deep oncology/immunology pipeline, innovative diagnostics, and steady dividend growth.

$PSX – Phillips 66: Diversified energy midstream/refining player; currently soft on volatile crack spreads and sector rotation, but compelling long-term case through integrated operations, high shareholder returns (dividend + buybacks), and exposure to energy infrastructure needs.

$DW – Drew Industries (historical ticker reference, now associated with LCI Industries
components): Manufacturer of RV, marine, and industrial parts; beaten down by cyclical slowdown in recreational/housing markets, but strong upside as leisure travel and manufactured housing recover over time.

$UPWK – Upwork Inc.: Leading freelance talent marketplace; pulled back by economic caution reducing corporate freelance spend, yet A+ long-term potential from secular gig/remote-work trends, platform network effects, and AI-driven matching enhancements.These are positioned as long-term holds with attractive risk/reward for patient investors. Always do your own research and consider current market conditions.
Thanks

8 best-stocks-to-buy-according-to-billionaire Bill Ackman

 Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Holdings favors these top 8 stocks from its Q3 2025 13F filings, ranked by equity stake size.

Stock Tickers

• $HLT

• $CMG

• $AMZN

• $QSR

• $GOOGL

• $HHH

• $BN

• $UBER

Key Summary

Pershing Square achieved over 20% returns in 2025, beating the S&P 500 by 14%, fueled by value picks in tech giants and select others amid Fed rate cuts.

Ackman anticipates no further rate cuts in 2026, with inflation likely settling at 2.5-3%, yet views President Trump’s pro-business policies as a market tailwind.

Selections reflect strong hedge fund interest (e.g., 332 holders for $AMZN) and recent analyst upgrades, like buybacks for $HLT and AI-driven growth for $GOOGL.

Wharton is Special.: $TSLA , $ORCL and $BLK and more..

Wharton School earns its nickname as "the school that thinks while others execute" due to its rigorous emphasis on strategic theory, financial modeling, and intellectual frameworks over immediate operational tactics. 

 Origin of the Phrase : The phrase contrasts Wharton's analytical, big-picture approach—honed through case studies in economics and leadership—with more hands-on schools like Harvard Business School or Stanford GSB, which prioritize execution skills.

Google Connection : Elon Musk, a Wharton undergrad (briefly, before transferring), credits its quantitative rigor for shaping his first-principles thinking at Zip2 and PayPal precursors to Google's ecosystem via early web standards.

 Safra Catz : Safra Catz (Wharton BS/JD) as Oracle CEO exemplifies this: she orchestrated 130+ acquisitions totaling $43B+, including PeopleSoft and Sun Microsystems, applying Wharton's M&A frameworks to consolidate enterprise software theoretically before executing flawlessly.

 Stephen Schwarzman : Blackstone co-founder Stephen Schwarzman (Wharton MBA) built a $1T+ asset empire by theorizing leveraged buyouts academically—pioneering models still taught there—while rivals executed smaller deals.

 Elon Musk : Musk's Wharton foundation informed Tesla's ($TSLA) battery economics models and SpaceX's reusable rocket simulations, prioritizing long-term physics-based strategies over short-term production ramps.

A crash is coming

Inspired by: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-crash-is-coming/

Warns of impending economic bubbles fueled by AI investment exuberance, reckless non-bank private credit expansion, soaring sovereign debt, and speculative assets like digital currencies, potentially bursting under pressures like policy shocks or rising interest rates.
These bubbles, larger and more intertwined than past ones (e.g., Dot.com or 2008 housing crisis), penetrate the real economy deeply, risking widespread credit disruption and losses equivalent to major economies' GDPs.
A burst could lead to a severe recession unless met with swift, effective policy responses like rate cuts and stimulus, but poor leadership might exacerbate denial and blame-shifting.
Ultimately, the crisis may end populist policies, reshape alliances, and transform the geopolitical landscape amid eroded US institutions and fiscal damage from current administrations.
Thank for reading.

Greenland: CFA is not a bad option

A goodwill gesture of handing over the territory of Greenland, at a reasonable tag, should not hurt

All this keeping the global bohomie in mind.  The least option could be a CFA - Compact of free association

The United States shoulders about two-thirds of NATO's total military spending—$967 billion out of $1.47 trillion alliance-wide in 2024—while the other 31 members combined mustered just $503 billion, less than what America spends alone. This stark dollar gap persists despite NATO's tiny common budgets of €3.5 billion yearly, where the U.S. pays only 16%, matching Germany's share.[1][2][3][4]

Even relative to GDP, America's 3.4% commitment outpaces most allies' 2% target (now met by 23 nations), but Poland's $31 billion (4.1% GDP) and the UK's $75 billion still pale beside the U.S. juggernaut that funds 68% of NATO's collective might.[5][6]

$USAR, $IPX, $IE, $VZLA, $CMP, $CTGO, $SSRM, $FSM, $NB, $PALAF

Compact of Free Association

Some have suggested a compromise could see Greenland forming something called a Compact of Free Association with the United States.
Professor Rothwell said a Compact of Free Association was one of a number of forms of legal and constitutional arrangements the US had with territories known as "insular areas".
"That's important because it needs to be noted that there are already existing models that could be applied under US law, of which one is the Compact of Free Association," he said.

Under Compacts of Free Association, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Republic of Palau all have their own governments but the US has responsibility for their defence and foreign affairs.

Sources
[1] How much is each NATO country spending on its military in 2024? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/11/how-much-does-each-nato-country-spend-in-2024
[2] Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/global-military-spending-surges-amid-war-rising-tensions-and-insecurity
[3] US contributes 16% of NATO annual budget, not two-thirds | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/us-contributes-16-nato-annual-budget-not-two-thirds-2024-05-31/
[4] Funding NATO https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/funding-nato
[5] NATO Spending by Country 2026 - World Population Review https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country
[6] NATO defense spending by country 2025 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/584088/defense-expenditures-of-nato-countries/