Sunday, December 15, 2024

What up with $AMD?

 Its a cycle, that what it is...

Wait your turn AMD

$NVDA ==> $MRVL ==> $AVGO ==> $TSM ===> $MU ==> $AMD ==> $INTC

is a possible cyclic order.


Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) appears to be undervalued based on several valuation methods:

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model:

   - Fair value estimate of $219 per share, suggesting AMD is undervalued by approximately 21% at its current price[1].

   - Another DCF model estimates the intrinsic value at $153.72, indicating AMD is undervalued by 15%[4].

2. Relative Valuation:

   - AMD's market cap should be 16-20% of Nvidia's, implying a fair value range of $228 to $285 per share[3].

3. Analyst Estimates:

   - Analysts' price target is $187, which is 17% higher than the DCF estimate of $219[1].

4. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio -- not a huge fan, but nevertheless:

   - AMD's current P/E ratio of 112.8x is higher than the industry average of 31.9x, suggesting it may be overvalued on this metric[6].

   - However, AMD's high P/E may be justified by its strong growth prospects in the AI market[3].

5. Growth Potential:

   - AMD is well-positioned in the rapidly expanding AI market, with estimates suggesting it could capture 20% of the $400 billion AI TAM by 2027[3].

While some models suggest overvaluation, the majority of analyses indicate that AMD is undervalued, especially considering its growth potential in the AI sector. Investors should consider AMD's strong position in the semiconductor industry and its potential for future growth when evaluating its current valuation.

Citations:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/advanced-micro-devices-inc-nasdaq-120014673.html

[2] https://www.macroaxis.com/valuation/AMD/Advanced-Micro-Devices

[3] https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1b9cxi5/bullish_on_amd_valuation_argument/

[4] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/amd/summary

[5] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/amd/dcf-valuation

[6] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/semiconductors/nasdaq-amd/advanced-micro-devices/valuation

[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05z36fSoWIo

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Trip.com: A worthy stock to hold

 The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For example, the Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) share price has soared 156% in the last three years. How nice for those who held the stock! On top of that, the share price is up 37% in about a quarter. This could be related to the recent financial results, released recently - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.








https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trip-com-group-nasdaq-tcom-141736160.html

Friday, November 29, 2024

Unsustainable stock pricing

 Unsustainable stock price zones occur when stock prices rise significantly above their intrinsic value, often due to speculative bubbles. These bubbles are fueled by factors such as excessive liquidity, investor psychology, and market sentiment, leading to rapid price increases that are not supported by fundamentals[2][3]. When the bubble bursts, it can result in sharp declines in stock prices, causing economic disruptions and recessions[1][2]. Historical examples include the 1920s stock market bubble and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s[2][3]. Recognizing these unsustainable zones is crucial for investors to avoid significant financial losses.


Sources

[1] The worst stock market crashes of all time - IG https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/the-worst-stock-market-crashes-of-all-time-181031

[2] How Do Asset Bubbles Cause Recessions? - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082515/how-do-asset-bubbles-cause-recessions.asp

[3] 5 Stages of a Bubble - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp

[4] 15 Factors that Affect Stock Market Prices - Strike.money https://www.strike.money/stock-market/price-factors

[5] Stock Market Crash: Causes, History, and How to Protect Your ... https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-history

[6] Biggest Stock Market Crashes In US History - Bankrate https://www.bankrate.com/investing/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-us-history/

[7] [PDF] Stock Market Concentration - Morgan Stanley https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_stockmarketconcentration.pdf

[8] Understanding stock market volatility and how it could help you https://www.fidelity.com.sg/beginners/your-guide-to-stock-investing/understanding-stock-market-volatility

Monday, November 25, 2024

Bitcoin/Crypto to payoff National Debt (BTC) - 35 Trillion $ Only

Dollar gaining strength over other currencies by strategically building Bitcoin and Energy reserves can enbale USA to pay off the National Whopping debt of 35 Trillion $.

This would take a balancing act of Crypto mining and Energy reserves. Deploying nuclear power towards systematic mining along with building the reserves may just DO it.

Interested, read more....

While the idea of using cryptocurrency to address the U.S. national debt has gained attention, particularly from figures like Donald Trump and Senator Cynthia Lummis, the feasibility of systematically mining and trading crypto coins to pay off the debt faces several challenges:

Scale and Practicality

The U.S. national debt currently stands at approximately $35 trillion, which far exceeds the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined[1]. Even if the U.S. were to acquire a significant portion of the crypto market, it would likely be insufficient to make a substantial dent in the debt.

Mining Limitations

Bitcoin, the most prominent cryptocurrency, has a capped supply of 21 million coins, of which about 90% has already been mined[1]. This leaves limited potential for new Bitcoin production through mining. Additionally, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency mining makes it difficult for a single entity, even a government, to control a significant portion of the mining process.

Proposed Strategies

Instead of mining, some politicians and industry figures have proposed alternative approaches:

1. Strategic Reserve: Senator Lummis has introduced a bill to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, aiming to acquire 5% of the total Bitcoin supply over time[3].

2. Debt Reduction Plan: Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy suggests that buying one million Bitcoins over five years could potentially reduce the national debt by $16 trillion, or 45% of the total[2].

3. Crypto Checks: Trump has suggested "issuing small crypto checks" as part of a strategy to repay the national debt[3].

 Economic Implications

Proponents argue that a Bitcoin reserve could:

- Stabilize the dollar and increase national wealth

- Serve as a hedge against inflation

- Preserve the country's financial dominance

However, critics point out the volatility of cryptocurrencies and the potential risks of relying on speculative assets for national debt management.

Political Considerations

The idea of using cryptocurrencies to address the national debt has gained some traction among certain political figures, but it remains a controversial and untested approach. It would require significant legislative support and a shift in monetary policy to implement such strategies.

In conclusion, while systematically mining and trading crypto coins is unlikely to be a viable solution for paying off the U.S. national debt, the broader concept of incorporating cryptocurrencies into national financial strategies is gaining attention. However, any such plans would face substantial practical, economic, and political hurdles before implementation.


Citations:

[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-promises-crypto-election-usa

[2] https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2024/11/15/michael-saylor-explains-how-a-bitcoin-reserve-could-reduce-u-s-debt-by-16-trillion/

[3] https://www.cointribune.com/en/donald-trump-suggests-using-bitcoin-to-repay-the-us-debt/

AAPL: Modestly overvalued