Pick the Right Stocks

Good news, investors! Advanced Micro Devices is still a bargain right now. According to our valuation, the intrinsic value for the stock is $213.12, but it is currently trading at US$139 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Managing Investment Risk: With a Simple Analogy

Mapping investments to the Mohs scale of hardness is an interesting analogy that can help illustrate the relative resilience and stability of different investment types. Here's how we might conceptualize this:

Investment Hardness Scale

1. Cash (Talc): Highly liquid but offers little resistance to inflation.

2. Savings Accounts (Gypsum): Slightly more resistant than cash, with minimal interest.

3. Certificates of Deposit (Calcite): More structured, with penalties for early withdrawal.

4. Government Bonds (Fluorite): Generally stable, but can be affected by interest rate changes.

5. Corporate Bonds (Apatite): Harder than government bonds, with higher yields but more risk.

6. Real Estate (Orthoclase): Tangible asset, resistant to some market fluctuations.

7. Blue Chip Stocks (Quartz): Well-established companies, relatively stable in the long term.

8. Growth Stocks (Topaz): Higher potential returns, but also higher volatility.

9. Commodities (Corundum): Hard assets like gold or oil, often used as inflation hedges.

10. Venture Capital/Private Equity (Diamond): Highest risk and potential reward, least liquid.

Key Considerations

Diversification:

Just as a geologist uses various minerals for different purposes, a balanced investment portfolio should include a mix of "hardnesses".

Risk Tolerance:

Your personal risk tolerance determines how far up the "hardness" scale you're comfortable investing.

Time Horizon:

Longer investment horizons generally allow for "harder" investments that may be more volatile in the short term[5].

Liquidity Needs:

"Softer" investments are typically more liquid, while "harder" ones may be difficult to sell quickly.

Remember, this analogy is not perfect. Unlike minerals, investments can change in "hardness" over time, and market conditions can affect all levels of the scale. Always consult with a financial advisor to create an investment strategy tailored to your specific needs and goals.

Finally, Cryptos may be mapped to a Mohs scale as well. Stablecoins, on the harder end, Well established ones like Bitcoin in the middle and smaller Altcoins on the softer end.

Disclaimer :: comparison is metaphorical rather than literal.

what are the top holdings of IBIT? Very interesting.

Based on the available information, the top holdings of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) are:

1. US Dollars: This makes up 99.96% of the fund's holdings.

2. Deposits with Broker for Short Positions: This accounts for the remaining 0.04% of the fund's holdings.

It's important to note that IBIT is designed to track the performance of Bitcoin. While the fund's assets are primarily held in US dollars, the ETF's objective is to reflect the performance of Bitcoin's price.

The structure of holding mostly cash is likely due to the nature of how this Bitcoin ETF operates. Rather than holding Bitcoin directly, it may use financial instruments or contracts to achieve exposure to Bitcoin's price movements while maintaining its assets in a more liquid form.

This composition aligns with the fund's investment objective, which is to seek to reflect generally the performance of the price of Bitcoin[5]. The cash holdings allow the fund to manage liquidity and facilitate the creation and redemption process typical of ETFs, while still providing investors with exposure to Bitcoin's price movements.

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Top Crypto Choices on Robinhood

Based on the available information, here are some of the best cryptocurrency options to consider trading on Robinhood:

## Top Crypto Choices on Robinhood

1. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

While not technically "altcoins," Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the two largest and most established cryptocurrencies. They are available on Robinhood and are generally considered core holdings for many crypto investors[1][5].

2. Litecoin (LTC)

Litecoin is often referred to as the "silver to Bitcoin's gold" and has been around since 2011. It's one of the more established altcoins available on Robinhood[1].

3. Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche has gained attention due to its partnerships with major companies like Amazon. It's seen as having real-world utility and potential for growth[1].

4. Dogecoin (DOGE)

While started as a meme coin, Dogecoin has gained significant popularity and is available on Robinhood. Its status as a proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency may make it less likely to face regulatory scrutiny[1][5].

5. Chainlink (LINK)

Chainlink is available on Robinhood and is known for its oracle network that provides real-world data to blockchain applications[3].

## Considerations

- **Diversity**: Robinhood offers over 15 cryptocurrencies for trading, allowing for a diverse portfolio[2].

- **Low Costs**: Robinhood is known for its zero-commission trading structure, which applies to crypto as well[2][4].

- **Ease of Use**: The platform allows you to buy fractional shares of crypto with as little as $1, making it accessible for beginners[2].

## Caution

It's important to note that many users in the cryptocurrency community advise against using Robinhood for crypto trading, citing concerns about ownership and control of the actual coins[1]. Consider researching self-custody options and other platforms that allow direct ownership and transfer of cryptocurrencies.

Remember, cryptocurrency investments can be highly volatile and risky. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.

Citations:

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/145xye7/which_alt_coins_left_on_robinhood_would_you_buy/

[2] https://www.newsweek.com/vault/investing/invest-in-crypto-with-robinhood/

[3] https://robinhood.com/eu/en/about/crypto/

[4] https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/no-commission-crypto/

[5] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/top-10-cryptocurrencies/

[6] https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/best-crypto-top-cryptocurrencies

[7] https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/cardano-polygon-solana-update/

[8] https://robinhood.com/eu/en/support/articles/crypto-buying-and-selling/

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Need daily stock screens /listings

https://x.com/gnvenky

Pls follow

Saturday, November 9, 2024

ALAB: Worth noticing.

"My rating for ALAB -0.33%↓ is “imminent violent sinusoid”.

No idea what the amplitude or frequency of the sinusoid will be, but this ticker is definitely going way down because of Grace-Blackwell then will recover later because of Trainium/Inferentia." - From

https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/astera-labs-impending-revenue-implosion

With Zero Outflows from institutions and only buying in Q1 / Q3, this one is all primed for take off

All Top names with hands in the cookie jar:

Holder	Shares	Date Reported	% Out	Value
FMR, LLC	23.35M	Jun 30, 2024	14.72%	2,318,709,388
Intel Corporation	5.9M	Jun 30, 2024	3.72%	586,194,629
Atreides Management, LP	2.78M	Jun 30, 2024	1.75%	275,689,478
Vanguard Group Inc	2M	Jun 30, 2024	1.26%	198,976,849
Blackrock Inc.	1.49M	Jun 30, 2024	0.94%	147,918,178
Invesco Ltd.	1.44M	Jun 30, 2024	0.91%	143,153,168
JP Morgan Chase & Company	1.42M	Jun 30, 2024	0.90%	141,079,982
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	1.04M	Jun 30, 2024	0.65%	103,041,031
Maverick Capital Ltd.	996.75k	Jun 30, 2024	0.63%	98,977,278
Summit Partners Public Asset Management LLC	940.6k	Jun 30, 2024	0.59%	93,401,682

Friday, November 8, 2024

Winning in the Stock Market, is not Just Finance, Its about Human Needs

Anthropological perspectives on human needs and their evolution offer intriguing insights that can be applied to understanding stock market behavior and potentially identifying investment opportunities. This article explores the intersection of human needs, their growth over time, and how these concepts relate to stock market dynamics.

The Hierarchy of Human Needs

Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs provides a foundational framework for understanding human motivations

1. Physiological needs (food, water, shelter)

2. Safety needs (security, stability)

3. Love and belonging (relationships, social connections)

4. Esteem (respect, status)

5. Self-actualization (personal growth, fulfillment)

As societies develop and basic needs are met, individuals and communities tend to focus on higher-level needs, leading to evolving consumer behaviors and market demands.

The Evolution of Human Needs

Human needs are not static; they grow and change over time due to various factors:

Technological Advancements: New technologies create novel needs and desires. For example, the rise of smartphones has generated demand for mobile apps, high-speed internet, and portable charging solutions.

Cultural Shifts: Changing social norms and values influence what people consider essential. The growing emphasis on sustainability has created new markets for eco-friendly products and services.

Globalization: Exposure to diverse cultures broadens consumer preferences and creates demand for international goods and experiences.

Demographic Changes: Aging populations in many developed countries have increased the need for healthcare services and retirement-related products.

Applying Anthropological Insights to Stock Market Analysis

Understanding the evolution of human needs can provide valuable insights for stock market investors:

1. Identifying Emerging Trends: By observing shifts in societal needs and values, investors can spot potential growth industries before they become mainstream.

2. Long-term Investment Strategies: Companies that address fundamental and evolving human needs are likely to have sustained demand, making them attractive for long-term investments.

3. Risk Assessment: Anthropological analysis can help investors gauge the potential longevity and societal acceptance of new products or services.

4. Market Segmentation: Understanding diverse needs across different cultures and demographics can inform international investment strategies.

5. Innovation Forecasting: By anticipating future needs based on current trends, investors can identify companies poised for innovation and growth.

Case Studies: Anthropology and Stock Market Success

Several examples illustrate how anthropological insights have translated into stock market gains:

Apple Inc.: By recognizing the growing need for user-friendly technology and seamless integration of devices into daily life, Apple has consistently outperformed market expectations[1].

Netflix: Identifying the shift in entertainment consumption patterns and the desire for on-demand content led to Netflix's remarkable growth and stock performance[2].

Beyond Meat: Capitalizing on the increasing societal focus on health and sustainability, Beyond Meat's stock saw significant gains following its IPO[3].

Challenges and Considerations

While anthropological analysis can provide valuable insights, it's important to consider:

- The complexity of human behavior and the difficulty in predicting societal shifts

- The potential for rapid changes in consumer preferences

- The influence of external factors such as economic conditions and regulatory environments

Conclusion

Integrating anthropological perspectives into stock market analysis offers a unique approach to understanding market dynamics and identifying investment opportunities. By closely observing the evolution of human needs and societal trends, investors can gain a competitive edge in predicting future market movements and making informed investment decisions.

As the global economy continues to evolve, the intersection of anthropology and finance will likely become an increasingly important area of study for both academics and market practitioners. Investors who can effectively leverage these insights may be well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends and achieve long-term stock market gains.

It would be an interesting exercise to draw up a scoring system of many such factors (behavioral/anthropological) and realize a probabilistic determination of a set of stocks that have long term growth.

Thanks for Reading.

Citations:

[1] https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/bestor/files/markets_bestor_0.pdf

[2] https://www.bibliovault.org/BV.landing.epl?ISBN=9780226360584

[3] https://live-sas-www-history.pantheon.sas.upenn.edu/publications/2016/marc-flandreau

[4] https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2017/01/10/book-review-anthropologists-in-the-stock-exchange-a-financial-history-of-victorian-science-by-marc-flandreau/

[5] https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo23151198.html

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_anthropology

[7] https://academic.oup.com/chicago-scholarship-online/book/17832/chapter-abstract/175601402?redirectedFrom=fulltext

[8] https://scholar.harvard.edu/bestor/publications/markets-anthropological-aspects

Monday, October 28, 2024

Alphabet: 24% implied upside

Alphabet primarily generates revenue through its Google operating segment, though its autonomous driving subsidiary Waymo could one day be a meaningful growth driver. In June, Forrester Research ranked Google as a leader in foundational large language models shortly after the company released Gemini, a family of models that have been integrated across its advertising and cloud computing ecosystems.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/28/palantir-stock-alphabet-stock-wall-street-buy-sell/