The Formula

Some notes...

 

Fair Value of Entry for any Stock: Good Entry Point

 The good entry point could be a  Strike Price (SP) for your Sell PUT
or just a GTC Buy Entry point.

Here is the proposed formula 'toying with:

Proposed Formula

Where:

1. Fair Value is derived from FCF.

2. Risk Adjustment Factor is based on Beta.

3. Momentum Adjustment Factor is based on Bull/Bear Power.

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Step-by-Step Explanation

1. Fair Value from Free Cash Flow (FCF)

   - Use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock:

     

    

   - This provides a fundamental baseline for the stock's value.

2. Risk Adjustment Factor (Beta)

   - Beta measures the stock's volatility relative to the market. Incorporate it as a discount factor:

   - A higher Beta increases the discount, lowering the entry price to account for higher risk.

3. Momentum Adjustment Factor (Bull/Bear Power)

   - Use the Bull/Bear Power indicator to adjust for market momentum:

     - If Bull Power > 0, add a premium to reflect bullish momentum.

     - If Bear Power < 0, apply a discount to reflect bearish momentum.

This formula combines fundamental valuation via FCF with adjustments for risk (Beta) and market sentiment/momentum (Bull/Bear Power). It provides a balanced approach to determining an entry price that accounts for both intrinsic value and market dynamics.

Here is an example with $AMD ::

The calculated good entry price for AMD is approximately $35.20, based on its Free Cash Flow valuation, Beta for risk adjustment, and Bull/Bear Power for momentum adjustment.

This price reflects a balance between AMD's intrinsic value and market dynamics, offering a conservative entry point for investors considering both volatility and sentiment indicators.

Here is the fair values from NVDA from other methods:

Based on the proposed method, its Entry point is coming at $56.55, or the most conservative.

Thanks fo reading.

Space Stocks :: RKLB, LUNR and more..

#### Best Space Exploration Stocks

Investing in space exploration stocks can be an exciting opportunity, especially as the industry continues to grow and evolve. Here are some of the top companies in the space sector that are worth considering:

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#### **1. Rocket Lab (RKLB)**

Rocket Lab is known for its small satellite launch services and has been making significant strides in the space industry. The company has seen substantial growth, particularly with its upcoming Neutron rocket, which aims to expand its launch capabilities.

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#### **2. Intuitive Machines (LUNR)**

Intuitive Machines focuses on lunar exploration and has been involved in various missions to the Moon. Despite recent challenges, the company remains a key player in the space sector, especially with its lunar lander technology.

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#### **3. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)**

AST SpaceMobile is working on building a space-based mobile broadband network. The company's innovative approach to providing connectivity through satellites positions it well for future growth in the telecommunications sector.

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#### **4. Redwire (RDW)**

Redwire specializes in space infrastructure and has a diverse portfolio that includes satellite systems and space robotics. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for space-based services.

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#### **5. Planet Labs (PL)**

Planet Labs operates a fleet of Earth observation satellites, providing valuable data for various industries, including agriculture, forestry, and urban planning. The demand for satellite imagery and analytics continues to grow, making Planet Labs a strong contender in the space market.

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#### **6. Spire Global (SPIR)**

Spire Global focuses on satellite-based data and analytics, offering insights into weather, maritime, and aviation sectors. The company's unique data offerings have garnered attention and investment, positioning it for future success.

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#### **7. Virgin Galactic (SPCE)**

Virgin Galactic is known for its space tourism initiatives. While the stock has experienced volatility, the company's focus on commercial space travel could provide significant returns as the industry matures.

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### **Conclusion**

These companies represent a mix of established players and innovative newcomers in the space exploration sector. As the industry continues to expand, these stocks could offer exciting investment opportunities. Always consider conducting thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions.

Why Tariffs, or Why not?

Abstract 

Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico aim to pressure China into opening its markets. This strategy seeks to expand U.S. trade opportunities in Africa and Asia-Pacific, potentially improving the trade balance and addressing national debt. 

Time to buckle up, its a bumpy ride

Yo, recession whispers, tariffs in the air,⁰Inflation bites, confidence nowhere!⁰AI’s risin’, cyber fears ignite,⁰Markets crashin’, hold on tight!⁰Will the economy ever be right?https://t.co/iXwP8C9Kq1

— VENKY RAO (@gnvenky) March 8, 2025

Jensen eloquently explains the stages of AI

Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang was just asked by DDN about

Deepseek and why people thought it could be a bad thing pic.twitter.com/sb8sVfyeQz

— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) February 21, 2025

A great explaination

Park some funds into $HIMS

$HIMS is following a growth flywheel most people don’t see.

It’s becoming the Amazon of healthcare.

Amazon started in books, dominated it and then leveraged that power to expand into neighboring markets.$HIMS is following the same playbook.

It started with hair loss and… pic.twitter.com/RZH5fK3KTV

— Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸 (@thexcapitalist) February 15, 2025

Amazing analysis on the $AMZN of health

Lovely list of Stocks: Great compilation

My top 10 growth stock picks for the next decade: 🧵

1. $HOOD

- Forward P/E: 44
- Operating Margin: 54%
- 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 57%

Preferred brokerage among younger generations with growing asset management and credit card business.

Diverse services allows it to lock-in… pic.twitter.com/9lYWMNtFVS

— Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸 (@thexcapitalist) February 14, 2025

1. $HOOD - Forward P/E: 44 - Operating Margin: 54% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 57% 2. $HIMS - Forward P/E: 114 - Operating Margin: 6% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 76% 3. $SOFI - Forward P/E: 62 - Net Interest Margin: 5.8% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 47% 4. $NU - Forward P/E: 28 - Net Interest Margin: 9% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 80% ...and more..

How to play the Stock Market? The short version

For all long term plays: Revenue Matters Mid term plays: Revenue + Margin Short to Mid term plays: Revenue + Margins + FCF Short term : All matter, but mainly Volume.. Volume.. Volume and Bull Bear Ratios ++ Revenue + Margins + FCF + Sentiment + Shiny objects + CPI + …. + /Gut

 

Stock performance evolves over time! 📈 In the short term, the multiple matters most, but over the long haul, revenue growth and margins take the lead. For long-term investors, focus on the business fundamentals for solid returns! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/tD27wv9bgP

— The Future Investors (@ftr_investors) February 15, 2025

What NOT to keep in your IRA, Leveraged Securities, please read more..

 Investing in TSLL and AMDL (assuming AMDL refers to a specific investment or stock, but it's not clearly defined in the context) involves different considerations for long-term IRA investments.

TSLL (Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares)

- Nature: TSLL is a leveraged ETF designed to achieve 150% of Tesla's daily return. It is primarily for traders seeking short-term gains rather than long-term investors.

- Risks:

  - ==> Leverage Risk: The fund uses leverage, which amplifies both gains and losses.

  - ==> Compounding Effect: Daily compounding can lead to significant deviations from the underlying asset's performance over longer periods.

  - ==> Volatility: High volatility in Tesla's stock can negatively impact TSLL's performance.

- ==> Long-term Suitability: Not recommended for long-term IRA investments due to its high-risk nature and potential for negative compounding effects over time.

AMDL (Assuming AMD or Another Stock)

If AMDL refers to AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) or another stock, consider the following:

- AMD:

  - Growth Potential: AMD has shown strong growth in the semiconductor industry, making it a potential long-term investment.

  - Market Influence: AMD's position in the tech sector could provide stability and growth opportunities.

- Other Stocks:

  - Evaluate the specific stock's fundamentals, industry trends, and growth prospects.

Long-term IRA Investment Considerations

For a long-term IRA investment, it's generally safer to focus on stable, growth-oriented stocks or diversified funds rather than highly leveraged ETFs like TSLL. AMD, if referring to Advanced Micro Devices, might be a more suitable long-term investment due to its growth potential and market position.

Recommendations

1. Diversification: Spread investments across different asset classes to minimize risk.

2. Research: Conduct thorough research on any stock or ETF before investing.

3. Risk Tolerance: Align investments with your risk tolerance and long-term goals.

4. Consult a Financial Advisor: Consider seeking professional advice for personalized investment strategies.

In summary, while TSLL can offer short-term trading opportunities, it is not suitable for long-term IRA investments due to its high-risk nature. AMD, if referring to Advanced Micro Devices, could be a more stable long-term investment option. Always prioritize diversification and align investments with your financial goals and risk tolerance.

Sources

[1] TSLL: 8% Yield Looks Good, But This Is For Traders - Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689577-tsll-8-percent-yield-good-for-traders

[2] Tesla's Comeback Fuels ETF Opportunities for 2025 - Nasdaq https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/teslas-comeback-fuels-etf-opportunities-2025

[3] (TSLL) Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X ... https://www.composer.trade/etf/TSLL

[4] Is AMD actually a stock to hold for 10-20 years? : r/investing - Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1dfj862/is_amd_actually_a_stock_to_hold_for_1020_years/

[5] Long Term Tesla Hold With TSLL : r/LETFs - Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/11tul6f/long_term_tesla_hold_with_tsll/

[6] Innovate Your TSLA Trades: Single Stock Daily Leveraged & Inverse ... https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30618316/innovate-your-tsla-trades-single-stock-daily-leveraged-inverse-etf-strategies-for-earnings-season

[7] [PDF] TSLL TSLS Fact Sheet (pdf) - Direxion https://www.direxion.com/uploads/TSLL-TSLS-Fact-Sheet.pdf

[8] Tesla: Is the Dip a Buying Opportunity Ahead of FSD Potential? https://www.investing.com/analysis/tesla-is-the-dip-a-buying-opportunity-ahead-of-fsd-potential-200655893

[9] Direxion Daily Tsla Bull 1.5x Shares Stock Forecast - StockInvest.us https://stockinvest.us/stock/TSLL