Friday, April 4, 2025

Where or When does the market Slide stop?

 Getting this question from many a quarter, so did a little bit of analysis

The premise is that institutions seldom lose money, so taking that into note

One can say, that the market free fall will happen when Top Caps held by institutions

stop falling below a $ mark

What are the Top 6 Stocks per market cap and the price below they may not fall below their bottom

STOCK.     BOTTOM

$AAPL.      $187

$MSFT.      $ 350.24

$NVDA.     $ 44.14

$AMZN.     $ 99

$GOOG.      $ 127

$META.       $ 193

When most of them are lingering around their bottoms, the chances of reversal are plausible.

Hope this gives some direction

thanks

Sunday, March 23, 2025

The Formula

Some notes...

 

Fair Value of Entry for any Stock: Good Entry Point

 The good entry point could be a  Strike Price (SP) for your Sell PUT
or just a GTC Buy Entry point.


Here is the proposed formula 'toying with:

Proposed Formula



Where:
1. Fair Value is derived from FCF.
2. Risk Adjustment Factor is based on Beta.
3. Momentum Adjustment Factor is based on Bull/Bear Power.

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Step-by-Step Explanation

1. Fair Value from Free Cash Flow (FCF)
   - Use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock:
     
    

   - This provides a fundamental baseline for the stock's value.

2. Risk Adjustment Factor (Beta)
   - Beta measures the stock's volatility relative to the market. Incorporate it as a discount factor:



   - A higher Beta increases the discount, lowering the entry price to account for higher risk.

3. Momentum Adjustment Factor (Bull/Bear Power)
   - Use the Bull/Bear Power indicator to adjust for market momentum:
     - If Bull Power > 0, add a premium to reflect bullish momentum.
     - If Bear Power < 0, apply a discount to reflect bearish momentum.



This formula combines fundamental valuation via FCF with adjustments for risk (Beta) and market sentiment/momentum (Bull/Bear Power). It provides a balanced approach to determining an entry price that accounts for both intrinsic value and market dynamics.

Here is an example with $AMD ::

The calculated good entry price for AMD is approximately $35.20, based on its Free Cash Flow valuation, Beta for risk adjustment, and Bull/Bear Power for momentum adjustment.

This price reflects a balance between AMD's intrinsic value and market dynamics, offering a conservative entry point for investors considering both volatility and sentiment indicators.

Here is the fair values from NVDA from other methods:

Based on the proposed method, its Entry point is coming at $56.55, or the most conservative.
Thanks fo reading.




Sunday, March 9, 2025

Space Stocks :: RKLB, LUNR and more..

#### Best Space Exploration Stocks

Investing in space exploration stocks can be an exciting opportunity, especially as the industry continues to grow and evolve. Here are some of the top companies in the space sector that are worth considering:

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#### **1. Rocket Lab (RKLB)**

Rocket Lab is known for its small satellite launch services and has been making significant strides in the space industry. The company has seen substantial growth, particularly with its upcoming Neutron rocket, which aims to expand its launch capabilities.

---

#### **2. Intuitive Machines (LUNR)**

Intuitive Machines focuses on lunar exploration and has been involved in various missions to the Moon. Despite recent challenges, the company remains a key player in the space sector, especially with its lunar lander technology.

---

#### **3. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)**

AST SpaceMobile is working on building a space-based mobile broadband network. The company's innovative approach to providing connectivity through satellites positions it well for future growth in the telecommunications sector.

---

#### **4. Redwire (RDW)**

Redwire specializes in space infrastructure and has a diverse portfolio that includes satellite systems and space robotics. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for space-based services.

---

#### **5. Planet Labs (PL)**

Planet Labs operates a fleet of Earth observation satellites, providing valuable data for various industries, including agriculture, forestry, and urban planning. The demand for satellite imagery and analytics continues to grow, making Planet Labs a strong contender in the space market.

---

#### **6. Spire Global (SPIR)**

Spire Global focuses on satellite-based data and analytics, offering insights into weather, maritime, and aviation sectors. The company's unique data offerings have garnered attention and investment, positioning it for future success.

---

#### **7. Virgin Galactic (SPCE)**

Virgin Galactic is known for its space tourism initiatives. While the stock has experienced volatility, the company's focus on commercial space travel could provide significant returns as the industry matures.

---

### **Conclusion**

These companies represent a mix of established players and innovative newcomers in the space exploration sector. As the industry continues to expand, these stocks could offer exciting investment opportunities. Always consider conducting thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions.

Why Tariffs, or Why not?

Abstract 

Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico aim to pressure China into opening its markets. This strategy seeks to expand U.S. trade opportunities in Africa and Asia-Pacific, potentially improving the trade balance and addressing national debt. 

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Time to buckle up, its a bumpy ride

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Jensen eloquently explains the stages of AI

A great explaination

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Park some funds into $HIMS

Amazing analysis on the $AMZN of health

Lovely list of Stocks: Great compilation

1. $HOOD - Forward P/E: 44 - Operating Margin: 54% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 57% 2. $HIMS - Forward P/E: 114 - Operating Margin: 6% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 76% 3. $SOFI - Forward P/E: 62 - Net Interest Margin: 5.8% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 47% 4. $NU - Forward P/E: 28 - Net Interest Margin: 9% - 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 80% ...and more..

How to play the Stock Market? The short version

For all long term plays: Revenue Matters Mid term plays: Revenue + Margin Short to Mid term plays: Revenue + Margins + FCF Short term : All matter, but mainly Volume.. Volume.. Volume and Bull Bear Ratios ++ Revenue + Margins + FCF + Sentiment + Shiny objects + CPI + …. + /Gut