Pick the Right Stocks
Anybody Can Trade (ACT) now.
Monday, October 14, 2024
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Risk averse investing
https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/indices/documents/pap-assetconsultinggroup-cboe-feb2012.pdf
Used perplexity to summarize the report
Based on the information provided in the document, I would recommend considering options-based investment strategies, particularly the PUT (CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite) Index, for investors looking to enhance risk-adjusted returns. Here are some key reasons:
## Performance
The PUT Index demonstrated the highest total growth over the 23.5-year period analyzed, with a cumulative return of 1153% (10.4% annualized) compared to 807% (9.0% annualized) for the S&P 500 Index[1]. This outperformance was achieved while also exhibiting lower volatility.
## Risk Reduction
The options-based strategies, including PUT, BXM (BuyWrite), and CLL (Collar), all showed about 30% lower volatility compared to the S&P 500 Index[1]. This reduced volatility can be particularly appealing for risk-averse investors.
## Downside Protection
The options-based strategies provided better downside protection during market declines. For example, the CLL Index had a maximum monthly loss of -8.0% compared to -16.8% for the S&P 500 Index over the analyzed period[1].
## Risk-Adjusted Returns
The PUT Index demonstrated the highest Sortino Ratio at 0.90, compared to 0.50 for the S&P 500 Index, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance[1].
## Income Generation
These strategies generate regular income through option premiums. For instance, the BXM Index collected an average gross monthly premium of 1.8%[1].
## Considerations
While the options-based strategies offer attractive benefits, investors should be aware that they may limit upside potential in strongly bullish markets. The choice between PUT, BXM, BXY, or CLL strategies would depend on an investor's specific risk tolerance and return objectives.
In conclusion, for investors seeking to enhance risk-adjusted returns, reduce volatility, and potentially outperform the broader market over the long term, the PUT Index strategy appears to be a compelling option based on the historical data presented.
Citations:
[1] https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/indices/documents/pap-assetconsultinggroup-cboe-feb2012.pdf
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Nuclear energy: tail winds
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/vistra-stock-google-4e26f76a?mod=mw_quote_news
Vistra Stock Is Best Performer in the S&P 500 Thursday. Google Is a Reason Why.
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Oil Stocks
Here are some of the best performing oil stocks as of October 2024:
## Top Oil Stock Performers
**Integrated Oil Companies:**
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): 17.2% return in 2024[1]
- Chevron (CVX): Trading at a 16% discount to fair value estimate[2]
**Exploration & Production:**
- Diamondback Energy (FANG): 11.2% return in 2024[1]
- Marathon Oil (MRO): 10.2% return in 2024[1]
- Hess: Trading at a 25% discount to fair value estimate[2]
**Refining:**
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC): 9.8% return in 2024[1]
- HF Sinclair: Trading at a 30% discount to fair value estimate[2]
**Oilfield Services:**
- SLB (formerly Schlumberger): Trading at a 31% discount to fair value estimate[2]
- Halliburton: Trading at a 23% discount to fair value estimate[2]
**Pipeline & Infrastructure:**
- Targa Resources (TRGP): 70.4% return in 2024[1]
- The Williams Companies (WMB): 31.1% return in 2024[1]
- ONEOK (OKE): 29.8% return in 2024[1]
- Kinder Morgan (KMI): 25.3% return in 2024[1]
## Factors to Consider
When evaluating oil stocks, it's important to consider:
1. Market conditions and oil prices
2. Company-specific factors like balance sheet strength and dividend yield
3. Diversification within the energy sector
4. Long-term industry trends, including the shift towards renewable energy
Remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and the energy sector can be volatile. It's advisable to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Citations:
[1] https://www.bankrate.com/investing/best-performing-energy-stocks/
[2] https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/best-energy-stocks-buy
[3] https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/oil-stocks
[4] https://finance.yahoo.com/u/yahoo-finance/watchlists/oil-and-gas-stocks?guccounter=1
[5] https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/the-best-oil-stocks-to-buy-now-according-to-the-pros
[6] https://www.zacks.com/stocks/industry-rank/industry/oil-and-gas-integrated-united-states-137
[7] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-oil-stocks/
[8] https://money.usnews.com/investing/slideshows/best-oil-and-gas-stocks-to-buy
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Monday, September 23, 2024
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Nvda upswing predicted by OpenAI
Meanwhile, stock trading expert Peter DiCarlo noted in a September 13 X post that Nvidia has been following a pattern of higher lows, indicating an overall uptrend. However, it continues to make lower highs, which have prevented a clear breakout. DiCarlo suggested that breaking this pattern would require the stock to surpass the $130 mark, which could trigger a more substantial rally.
“I believe $120 is the ceiling before we see a re-test and possible rejection,” he noted.
In the near term, the expert predicted that Nvidia could rise to the $120–$124 range, an area associated with institutional selling. Historically, this level has triggered sell-offs, so if the pattern holds, NVDA might face another pullback before resuming its upward momentum.
Sunday, September 8, 2024
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Retailers getting smarter on shrinkage, one Retailer takes the cake
$ TGT will see sufficient upside, working out right locations and having the right checks
to avoid theft and retail shrinkage