Sanctuary Stock !!

 $AAPL 

MU to 99

 

Average Recommendation	Overweight
Average Target Price	99.11

TSLA: upside

 

UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE

16.9% Upside

$223.11 Price Target

BEST ~

MET: 70 => 80 anyone?

 Technical intricacies on the stock chart unfold like a captivating story, where the plot revolves around a steadfast trend and weakening resistance, paving the way for success. 🌐

WW - Weight Watchers

 

UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE

152.3% Upside

$11.00 Price Target

Easy turnaround -- Morgan Stanley believes in it.

Trading / Investing to make (reasonable) money / returns

 

1. Get the trend right (up, down, sideways) and identify it early
2. Find a spot to enter with objectively defined risk point
3. Exit for a reasonable profit

Most often people lose money because they size too big and hold on to losing trades. How do you size - depends on the objective. Some may fancy maximizing wealth, while others minimizing the risk of ruin, and anywhere in between. There are mathematical approaches like Kelly criterion to position size. Here are some rough formula:

1. For equal size bets (win size = loss size), Kelly would suggest betting % win rate - % loss rate as the optimal bet size. So if the win-rate is 55%, the optimal bet size would be 0.55 - 0.45 = 0.1 or 10% of bank roll
2. For complex strategies, calculate the % return and standard deviation of returns - optimal bet size in % return over risk free rate / square of standard deviation -- For e.g. a strategy with expected return of 7%, risk free rate at 4% and standard deviation of returns at 20%, the optimal bet size is 75%

The issue with above approaches that size to bet with the objective to maximize wealth, can also result in ruin. Have you have saved up a stash that went up in smoke and would not bother you? Then, Kelly waits you!

For conservative souls, a reasonable return (say 10 - 15% per year) on their hard earned savings is possible. We can turn the required return into an objective function and can solve for the rest. Lets start with Sally (a conservative soul) who wants a steady return of 10 - 15% per year. She has done some research and identified a strategy with the following statistics:

• Frequency (how many occurrences per year): 50
• % Win rate: 60%
• Average win: 25%
• Average loss: -25%

Kelly would say bet 20% (0.6 - 0.4) on each trade. This would result in an expected return of 50%. This is amazing as long as Sally does not hit a bad streak that results in losing 50% of her account. For her reasonable 15% expected return, she can risk 6% of her account on each bet. This significantly reduces the likelihood of losing 50% of her account.

Now that we know how to size up correctly, we can turn to 1, 2, 3 above:

1. Get the trend right: Keep it simple, go with a simple combination of moving averages 20 / 40. Find a stock that is going down (price is below 20 day moving average, 20 day moving average is below 40 day moving average). Wait for some catalyst (earnings release, analyst upgrades, some major positive development). Following this development, wait till 20 crosses above 40. This could mark the start of a new uptrend.
2. Find a spot to enter - use some indicator to tell you price has pulled back enough. I prefer 4 period RSI. Just wait for it to go below 30 and buy
3. For a reasonable exit, target anything that gets you a 25% annualized return (or 2% for each 30 day holding period) or trend ends (20 period moving average crosses below 40 period moving average)

Assuming you can find 50 such opportunities, risk 6% of your account on each one and your average win is 25% (by design). If you average losing trade is ~25% annualized return, you can expect to hit 15% overall return. The advantage with setting things in this way allows you to diagnose the problem area when you miss your goal. If you identify the trend correctly and early, that should offer you significant number of opportunities. The main Achilles heel will be lack of stocks that are trending up or down. This will happen as markets will cycle between trending and choppy periods. We can look at other return sources to take advantage of choppy periods next time.  

AMD will battle NVDA 2024 to get to 190

 Wall Street analysts have responded favorably to AMD in recent weeks. Cantor Fitzgerald recently initiated AMD with an overweight rating and a $190 price target. Earlier this month, analysts at TD Cowen raised their price target on AMD to $185 from $130 per share while maintaining an outperform rating on the stock.

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/top-analyst-unveils-new-amd-stock-forecast-ahead-of-earnings

M1300

Oracle upside

 

UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE

13.6% Upside

$127.00 Price Target

Average Analyst Target Price

125.14

Disney upside

 

UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE

16.7% Upside

$109.40 Price Target

According to analysts' consensus price target of $109.40, Walt Disney has a forecasted upside of 16.7% from its current price of $93.76.

Here goes, tall targets to happen in short order

 $NVDA ===> 1000 $

$AMD.  ====> 500 $

$MSFT =====> 600 $

$GOOG ====> 200 $

$ORCL ====> 150 $

BEST and thanks for reading..

Days of conventional wisdom fadin'away

 2024 will not be about :

a)  AAPL and TSLA: making innovations/launches and prepping the market

b) GenAI in its various forms and sprouting to do more

c) NewGen Drugs making a splash

It will be about:

Customer and Consumer directed money flows only !

Commodities, Real-Estate, Materials and more, will most likely be the narrative.
Including HealthCare, PharmaRx, anything intersecting closer to the Consumer

BK : marching to 59

 

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is well-positioned for a decent comback in the next few months => 60+

1. Market Resilience: The property and casualty insurance sector, in which BK operates, is expected to thrive, driven by factors such as climate change, leading to strong pricing power[1].

2. Financial Performance: BNY Mellon has demonstrated positive financial performance, as evidenced by its intention to increase its quarterly cash dividend and beating earnings estimates in Q3 2023[3]4]6.

3. Capital Discipline: The institution is adopting a disciplined approach to capital management, indicating a strategic focus on prudent financial practices[5].

4. Economic Signals: BK's rebound is supported by positive signals, such as the reversal of losses and optimistic statements from its CEO regarding a potential trough in performance[6].

5. 
   

Kissing the Devil : Part 1 By Mukesh

 You identified a stock and want to buy it. However if you are a discount shopper (you know who you are), buying stock outright may not be for you. Here are some factors to weigh when making a decision on how to buy that stock:

1. Forecast accuracy: do your picks immediately rally after selection?
2. Market fluctuations: is the market overbought (it can stay that way for long) and a pullback may get you that stock for cheap
3. Opportunity cost and name your price: if you have a minimum threshold return (mine is 6% cash on capital), is it acceptable to capture that return without getting this stock?

1. Accuracy: Most retail forecasts for mid to large cap stocks are inferior to the price set by the market. So if you rush to buy that favorite stock, odds are likely against you. Well don't take my word for it, do some testing. If you have a systematic process to come up with stock selection, go back and look at how low the stock went from the close of the price on the day before you identified it during your holding period.
2. Market fluctuations: is the market trading close to a mid period (lets say 20) on the timeframe you trade. Typically market will cycle between -2 to +2 ATR (average true range) of the 20 period moving average. If you are trading closer to -2 ATR, it may make sense to pull the trigger before the market goes back over the moving average
3. Opportunity cost: If your process generates more trades than your account can handle, waiting may not be prudent. However if you hold between 10 - 15 stocks (typical for sub 1M portfolio), and your process generates 3 - 4x opportunities in a year, you can wait for better prices even at the cost of missing some good ones.

In the next blog, we can review how to identify buying levels once you have identified the stock and use options to get into it

- Mukesh Masand

GOOG on a steady up climb

155 pt Best

Applied Digital: APLD

$14.50 ▲(69.99% Upside)

best-monthly-dividend-stocks-to-buy-now

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-monthly-dividend-stocks-to-buy-now#:~:text=Realty%20Income%20Corp.,-(O)&text=This%20real%20estate%20income%20trust,and%20increasing%20its%20monthly%20dividend.

SWTX: 41 to 51

ANALYST RATING Buy 3.00 Rating Score UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE 24.7% Upside $51.80 Price Target

DAL to 52

Strong earnings expected and low oil prices will set a JUMP !

Goldman Sachs Recommendations

https://www.businessinsider.com/best-stocks-to-buy-now-investing-market-rally-goldman-sachs-2024-1#3-jefferies-financial-group-3

CIEN will pop ,,

Average Recommendation Overweight Average Target Price 59.29 Number Of Ratings 17

600k and live off dividends

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661283-how-to-invest-600000-in-2024-to-live-off-of-dividends-forever thanks

AAPL: $200.55 Price Target

UPSIDE/​DOWNSIDE 8.8% Upside $200.55 Price Target